By William Tucker
Chief Correspondent for In Homeland Security
Some wars begin by the smallest of sparks. We are reminded of this point today as European leaders gathered in Belgium to commemorate the beginning of the First World War, and though not every conflict will see world powers rushing to commit troops to battle it does remind us that unresolved issues are not best left to fester.
Just two years ago Armenia and Azerbaijan nearly came to blows over the Nagorno-Karabakh issue when a Azeri soldier killed an Armenian soldier with an ax. Shortly after the incident, the Azeri president declared the soldier to be a national hero, while Armenia publically detested the proclamation. Forces were mobilized, but cooler heads eventually prevailed though the militaries of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Nagorno-Karabakh remained on alert.
This conflict has once again flared up as a short skirmish between the belligerents left 15 Azeri soldiers dead over the weekend. Nagorno-Karabakh stated that they have lost 5 soldiers in the last two days due to “Azeri aggression.” The situation so alarmed Russia – the former master of both now independent nations – that Moscow issued an immediate appeal for calm. Since Moscow issued the appeal both Baku and Yerevan have blamed each other for a string of recent cease-fire infractions. Unfortunately, the situation is not improving.
It is possible that the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Serzh Sarkisian and Ilham Aliyev, will meet in Sochi as soon as August 8, but Azerbaijan reportedly claimed that it isn’t clear that Aliyev would attend. Azeribaijan has managed to distance itself from the overwhelming influence of Moscow and Aliyev ignoring the invite may be a way of driving home the point that Baku is no longer beholden to Moscow on the one hand, and the decisive shift in military power in Azerbaijan’s favor in the last decade on the other. Baku has stated several times over the past few years that it is capable of seizing Nagorno-Karabakh by force if necessary, but it would rather not do so.
The rise of Baku in the Caucasus and the larger Caspian/Middle East region has been notable and underestimating Azerbaijan would seem to be foolish at this juncture. Major regional powers appear to have their hands full at the moment and it isn’t clear that they could come to the aid of their respective ally whether that would be Azerbaijan or Armenia. That being said, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been managed, albeit imperfectly, since the cease-fire agreement of 1994 and neither player wants to see an escalation though their bellicose statements to the contrary may seem to conflict with this. The real danger is when local commanders have to make judgment calls that could lead to wider hostilities in the time the politicians work out a de-escalation of tensions. In situations such as this a small spark, even unintentional, could quickly lead to wider consequences.
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