Following Hamas’ surprise attack and massacre of Israeli civilians on October 7, Israel initiated Operation Swords of Iron aimed at Hamas strongholds in Gaza. In the five days since the Hamas attack and Israeli retaliation, thousands are dead and many more are wounded.
The conflict between Hamas and Israel is one that has had its peaks and valleys, but the issue at the heart of the matter has not been settled despite some prolonged periods of relative calm. Among Palestinian groups, Hamas counts itself among the more religious fundamentalist movements spawned from the Muslim Brotherhood. These groups cannot accept any peace with Israel but will accept ceasefires when necessary to rebuild and prepare for the next bout of fighting.
Why Did Hamas Choose to Strike Now?
So why did Hamas decide to strike now? According to the Washington Institute, recent polls show that Hamas has lost support among Gazans and the majority of Gazans were against breaking the ceasefire with Israel.
Elsewhere, Israel is finding success in normalizing ties with Arab nations that have long been hostile. Those same Arab nations have been, at the very least, indifferent to Hamas because Hamas obtains significant funding from Iran. Hamas is in danger of being left behind as the nations of the Middle East look to create a new regional order, making this attack on Israel one of desperation.
For decades, the Israeli-Palestinian issue has been called – at least by those in the West – as the Middle East conflict. This erroneous and grossly oversimplified term does not address the many complexities of conflict in the Middle East, and the West wrongly expected that Arab nations in the region could not find peace with Israel until the situation was resolved.
There have been accords that formalized peace between Israel, Egypt and Jordan. However, the U.S. Department of State has expanded the number of Arab nations that recognize Israel under the auspices of the Abraham Accords.
Currently, the Biden administration has been working towards diplomatic recognition between Israel and Saudi Arabia – a difficult undertaking to say the least. The talks have been challenging and in the wake of the Hamas attack, they are likely off for the time being.
However, the situation that led to the talks hasn’t changed. Riyadh is worried over Iranian influence in the region, and Saudi Arabia doesn’t want to rely exclusively on Washington since U.S. interests in the region are waning. Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have to act as security partners in any formal manner, but the two nations have a vested interest in blocking Iran’s expanding clout.
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Power Shifts in the Middle East
As the Middle East realigns and new relationships between nations take hold, many long-time militant groups will find themselves out in the cold. Terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah, on the other hand, will take on new significance as Iran looks for new ways to sow discord among those Arab states that oppose Tehran. Iranian influence is already significant in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, and there is an interest among many Arab states to contain Iran’s growing influence.
To the north, Turkey is another major regional competitor looking to make its presence felt and it does not always align with the Arab states and certainly not with Iran. Hamas, largely contained in Gaza, is a dangerous and capable terrorist organization, but it is highly dependent on funding from Iran and Qatar. Should Israel manage to degrade Hamas enough to make the threats from Gaza more manageable, Iran will lean more heavily on Hezbollah and other regional Shia militias, using them as tools to spread chaos among their foes.
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The Hamas Attack on Israel Should Be Viewed in a Wider Context
The takeaway here is that the Hamas attack on Israel has little to do with the overarching Palestinian issue; instead, it must be viewed in a wider, regional context. Any Israeli thrust into Gaza could result in an attack coming from Syria and Lebanon, which would be organized by Iran.
Whatever its plan may be, Israel will need to move fast in Gaza and prepare to move its forces north in the event of an incursion. There is every chance that this war could spread, but for now, it is vital to watch what happens with Gaza.
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